While many users may have been getting these fake Flash is Out Of Date messages, the trojan which is the most responsible for this is the Trojan-Downloader.OSX.Shlayer.a or the shlayer trojan as it is known.
Apparently, the shlayer trojan is so prevalent that it accounts for almost 30% of all infections on MAC OS X.
Kaspersky put out a breakdown of the entire package and code earlier this year. You can find that here:
https://securelist.com/shlayer-for-macos/95724/
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